Jets Have Abandoned What Made Them Successful vs. Avalanche

“Want to take penalties? Want to play a three-quarter ice game? You’re playing right into their hands,” Rick Bowness said after Game 4. “Our issues are self-inflicted. You saw us play the right way for 10 minutes in the second half of the first period. You take four penalties, you turn the puck over, that’s exactly how they want to play.”

As one of the most dangerous rush teams in the NHL, Colorado is consistently feasting off of WPG’s turnovers. This tweet below from Mike Kelly of NHL Network shows that within 10 seconds of a turnover, the Avalanche have a +29 scoring chance differential and a +7 goal differential. Turnovers, leading to immediate chances, extended defensive zone shifts, and compounded with undisciplined penalties, are the leading contributors to a 3-1 series deficit.

These extended defensive zone shifts have led to a barrage of penalties from the Jets, which the Avalanche are making quick work of with their elite power play. The Jets had the fourth-best penalty differential in the NHL this season (+61) which helped mask their special teams issues. The Avalanche’s power play clicked along at 6/14 (40%) and the Jets have had little to no answers for that unit.

Playing a more direct and simple game has usually wielded positive results for the Jets. Getting pucks behind the opposition’s defence usually leads to their forecheck doing damage, but that aspect of their game has been non-existent in this series.

Jets’ Once Great Forecheck Has Been Non-Existent Through 4 Games

The Avalanche have incredible puck movers in Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Sam Girard, and Sean Walker. They are also one of the best teams in the NHL at exiting their own zone cleanly, which feeds their dominant rush.

Why so many people, myself included, thought this wide advantage for Colorado would be lessened was due to Winnipeg’s pressure forechecking system. Whether it’s the speed of the Avalanche, or their ability to make adjustments and beat the Jets’ forecheck with X’s and O’s, the Jets elite pressure system that made them a successful team in the regular season has been absent in this series.

After sweeping the regular season series 3-0 by a combined score of 17-4, Mark Schefiele said after Game 4 that the Avalanche have made adjustments from the regular season, and the Jets haven’t.

“We had a good regular season against them, and they made adjustments, and we haven’t,” Scheifele said about the series. “We’ve got to bring a different game come Tuesday. We’ve got to fix some things. We’ve got to change some things up.”

With their backs against the wall and the Avalanche seemingly playing the best hockey at the right time, it’s a seemingly impossible task for the Jets to win this series. Adjustments will need to be made, but it’s seemingly too little, too late.

Jets Season Could be Over After Game 5 on Tuesday Night

The margin for error has ran out, as the Jets are facing elimination on Tuesday, April 30, inside Canada Life Centre in front of the ‘Winnipeg Whiteout’. The fans will be hoping to see one last effort and attempt to keep the 2023-24 season alive, a season that has undoubtedly been one of the best in franchise history, but a quick out in the first round would deem it forgettable.

Denying entires into the zone, making an impact on the forecheck, and staying out of the penalty box are the most important factors if the Jets are to win three straight games in this series. With Bowness citing a lack of ‘pushback’ as the main reason for their first-round loss in 2022-23, and with their season on the line, they will have a chance to show some pushback on Tuesday night.