Where will Belichick land if he parts ways with the Krafts, Patriots?

Belichick confidant Mike Lombardi somewhat countered that.

For the record, I have not heard from any team sources that Belichick's fate in New England has been decided, first and foremost. Both Belichick and the Krafts appear to be conducting business as usual and headed for their normal post-season conversation and that will determine the next steps. Could that change? Sure. This is uncharted waters for everyone involved with the Patriots.

Is there a sense in the building that this is coming to an end, and there will be a mutual parting of the ways after the season? Yes.

Let's take Orlovsky at his word and something has or is being worked out right now through back channels, either by Belichick, the Krafts or both. Who are the likely suitors? And then we'll get into where Belichick should want to wind up - even if those jobs aren't open right now.

If Orlovsky is correct and by Week 11 - Belichick's next team was already lined up - which I personally doubt - that would mean a few things would need to be aligned right now: a team that knows it needs a new coach, and an owner who wouldn't be afraid to tamper/start working the back channels.

Teams mostly likely to entertain hiring a new coach:

Raiders (already open)
Panthers (1-8)
Bears (3-7)
Commanders (4-6)
Chargers (4-5)
Buccaneers (4-5)

Teams that could be interested when the season is finished and they come up short, but are eliminated from this discussion because their fate is/was still in the balance as of the Orlovsky report:

Bills (were 5-4 at the time)
Cowboys (6-3)

Doubtful the team will make a move/owner has backed the head coach:

Giants
Titans
Falcons
Rams
Giants
Cardinals

Of the teams/owner that would be lining up Belichick now, here are our rankings, from least likely to most likely:

Eliminated:

Raiders: Mark Davis is already committed to gobs of money (nearly $100 million) to the fired Jon Gruden, Josh McDaniels and Dave Zeigler. Hard to see him wanting to pay Belichick his normal $20 million per season, let alone hiring an entirely new coaching staff and front office. Most around the league believe that Jim Harbaugh is the favorite here, and Davis may insist the front office stay in place, if not most of the coaching staff. 

Bears: While they need a new stadium and Belichick's presence could help in those efforts, so don't totally rule them out after the season, they aren't known for paying a ton to their coaches and I can't see 100-year-old owner Virginia McCaskey green-lighting team president Kevin Warren to go after Belichick right now. 

Chargers: The Spanos family is known for being very frugal, and their stadium situation renting from the Rams doesn't help that. So it's hard to see them being eager to bring in Belichick and entirely new regime at a high price tag. Plus, they're still in playoff contention.

3. Buccaneers

Why it makes sense: The Glazers love big names (thought they had Bill Parcells, Brett Favre), aren't afraid to ruffle feathers and take big swings (Tom Brady). Jason Licht used to work for Belichick so just for his own job preservation, back channeling to Belichick would be beneficial. Licht has a lot of guts, and isn't afraid to throw caution to the wind (bagging Tom Brady). 

Why it doesn't: This team is a mess on offense and at quarterback, and has a ton of free agents coming up (Mike Evans, Ryan Jensen, Devin White, Lavonte David, Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield). This might be a complete rebuild.

2. Panthers

Why it makes sense: Owner David Tepper is a hedge fund billionaire with deep pockets and growing impatience that his franchise is not only going nowhere, but backward. He thought he finally got the QB (Bryce Young), but that hasn't worked so far. Coach Frank Reich has publicly commented about his "not fun" Monday meetings with Tepper, so that probably didn't go over well. Could definitely see Tepper being so frustrated that he throws his hands up and turns it all over to someone like Belichick. Tepper is also very aggressive and wouldn't be shy about going through back channels to line something up with the Krafts and/or Belichick.

Why it doesn't: Tepper is infamous for his Monday meetings with coaches and his heavy involvement in all things football. Have a hard time seeing Belichick embracing that - unless Tepper agrees to step aside. He might be at that point, similar to Jimmy Haslam.

1. Commanders

Why it makes sense: New owner Josh Harris was only approved in July - way too late to make any substantial changes to his football operations, so he could be looking to make his imprint this offseason. He also needs a new stadium, so a name like Belichick could help in that sense as well. Harris has a relationship with Harvard Business School classmate Jonathan Kraft - that's the kind of background you need to reach a deal like this at this time. Albert Breer on Kraft/Harris in May:

Patriots president Jonathan Kraft has known Harris since 1988, when the two enrolled as 20-something classmates at Harvard Business School. They graduated together in ’90, and while their friendship is more casual than close, the heir to New England’s football throne has gotten to see a little more of Harris—beyond the generally serious, focused exterior of the world-class businessman—than most are able to.

That’s how the story of Harris’s son, Pierce, came up. As Kraft explained it, Pierce’s bar mitzvah was timed up to land in the early throes of the pandemic, when, more or less, everything was shut down. But Harris was determined not to let that stop his son from getting the whole experience of a sacred rite of passage in the Jewish faith.

“A young person trains for so long to do that, and everyone else was just canceling them,” Kraft says. “Josh created an elaborate Zoom. When I say elaborate, I mean he created an environment virtually that let his son go through it. Most parents would just say screw it. But his son had obviously put a huge amount of work into it, and they created a really great virtual bar mitzvah. You felt like you were there. You felt like you were a part of something very special.

“It was a nice feeling at a time where everything in the world was getting canceled.”

To Kraft, and those there, it said two things about Harris.

The first, obviously, was how important his wife, Marjorie, and their five kids are to him—a theme that comes up with just about everyone you ask about Harris. The second was the relentless, fierceness and thoroughness with which Harris pursues things.

That quality, obviously, has been omnipresent in his business career. In 1990 he cofounded Apollo Global Management, a company that, in time, became one of America’s most prominent asset management firms. “Intellectually, he’s off the charts,” says Kraft. “He knows how to surround himself with great operating people and allow them to do what they do. When you’re in the private equity business, that’s really what you do. You structure a deal, and then you turn it over to great operators who are properly incentivized.”

And his success in business has come through more than just his own ability—it’s also, as Kraft says, in his ability to surround himself with the right people and weaponize them.

It's also a historic franchise and Belichick is from Annapolis, Md. 

Why it doesn't: With his other teams, the 76ers and NJ Devils, Harris hasn't taken huge swings and interested in quick fixes. He's the Trust The Process guy and seems to be more interested in tearing things down and building them back up (hence, trade deadline deals of Chase Young and Montez Sweat) with a solid foundation. Is that the spot for a coach/GM who will be 72 in April?

WHAT BELICHICK SHOULD DO

Ranking the post-season situations for Belichick if something isn't locked up at this point:

3. Cowboys

Why it makes sense: Talented team on both sides of the ball that could just need a great coach to help them push through. Gets to coach Lawrence Taylor Jr., Micah Parsons. ... Bill Parcells was fond of his Dallas experience and could talk Belichick into being open to the situation, even the Joneses running personnel. ... Jerry Jones is 81. He may be ready to try anything to climb the mountain one more time. Why wouldn't he want the best coach of all-time?

Why it doesn't: Jerry Jones. He can't stay out of football or keep his mouth shut between post-game press conferences and weekly radio spots. Belichick is going to be OK with that?

2. Commanders

Why it makes sense: For all the reasons we laid out previously, and it's the best chance he has to create his own unfettered fiefdom. 

Why it doesn't: Close to a full rebuild with no ready answer at QB.

1. Chargers

Why it makes sense: The best roster of any contender, especially QB Justin Herbert. Best chance at immediate success and breaking Don Shula's record sooner rather than later. ... Dean Spanos could view Belichick as the person to make them a real factor in the LA market.

Why it doesn't: Spanos family has been cash-poor for a while and might not be willing to pay the price tag for Belichick and an entirely new regime.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Wouldn't read too much into Mac Jones taking first-team snaps in the lone bye week practice. That session is normally all about corrections from the previous game, and he was the QB. Plus, Belichick allowed the media to be there for that. I think he just didn't want the distraction and headlines heading into a bye week where everyone decompresses for a minute. No decision has been made yet, and that's not unusual. Belichick will decide either Monday (when the team reconvenes) or Tuesday (first practice).

2. Is it definite that Mac Jones goes to the bench? No. Belichick may decide that time away did Jones some good and he deserves another chance against the porous Giants after being subjected to ridiculous pressure behind a shoddy offensive line. Belichick might think Jones still gives the team the best chance to win, like Cam Newton in 2020. It's also possible that ownership insists Jones be allowed to finish out the season.

3. What should happen? Jones should go to the bench. He's just fried at this point, and he's lost a lot of the locker room. Belichick risks a full mutiny/quit if he keeps Jones in the lineup. Will it be Bailey Zappe or Will Grier? Would guess Zappe. While some in the building have no interest in playing Zappe (they did release him) and were intrigued by Grier when he first got here, we can't say that enthusiasm has sustained. We're not sure what Grier has or hasn't shown in practice. At this point, especially given the struggles of the offensive line and lack of any excitement on offense, we're actually not opposed to Malik Cunningham getting a shot at some point in these final seven games. 

4. Julian Edelman, as usual, being fair but tough on the Patriots:

"If you're a guy, you're a guy," Edelman said about Jones. "And I'm not gonna come out here and just bash on Мас. Yeah, it's been terrible for the whole unit. One play it's the offensive line, one play the receiver slips, one play the receiver drops the ball, there's a bad throw and, and collectively they're not doing well. But this is the National Football League. If you don't win, the quarterback and the head coach get the blame. When you do win, the quarterback and the head coach get the blame.

"It's just been tough for Mac to execute in the high-pressure situations and it comes down to his confidence. He’s lost his confidence, and once you lose your confidence in this league, it's tough. I remember there was a couple times where, you drop a ball or something here or there, and you start thinking about it the next play. Easy play, oh this is going to be easy, and when you’re thinking about things, it’s not allowing you to play fast. It’s not allowing your subconscious to kick in, and instincts play the game for you, and that’s what it’s been right now. He’s just lost his confidence. It sucks for him, but, you know, that's what's happened."

5. Coming Feb. 16, 2024:

It's based on the Jeff Benedict book, which was basically a Kraft Sports production.

“These are the two titanic figures of this franchise, but they are two alphas. A collision was inevitable,” a voice says in the trailer as Tom Brady and Belichick are shown.

“We were coming near the end and I was just trying to hold it together the best I could,” Kraft said in the trailer.